More data needed on housing demand

December 2, 2011

Today

Letter from Leong Sze Hian
04:46 AM Dec 02, 2011
I REFER to the articles “Khaw’s wish might come true” (Dec 1) and “HDB publishes clearer data on BTO application rates” (Nov 26) and the statistics on the success rate for getting a new public flat.

There were 1.4 first-time applicants for each flat offered to them in the latest Build-to-Order (BTO) launch, excluding studio apartments, while the application rate for second-timers was 24.6.

For the latter, it means that with 5 per cent of these 3,752 flats available to them, only about 188 (of some 4,600 applicants) may be offered a flat, a 4 per cent chance – and less for the BTO project in Hougang, with 55 applicants for each flat offered.

But we need more than just piecemeal data each time there is a BTO launch, as these numbers will move when applicants, such as the 15,000 first-time married couples each year, join the queue.

What are the total numbers of first- and second-time applicants still in the queue? Prior to the BTO concept, the Housing and Development Board did publish the total queue statistics, when it was building to sell on anticipated demand.

Data from July’s BTO launch showed that 73 per cent of first-timers were invited to select a flat, and with 62 per cent buying one, it means only 45 per cent got a flat.

Similarly, with 11 per cent of second-timers being asked to select, and 54 per cent who did so, 6 per cent got a flat.

Instead of only computing BTO application rates and giving the percentages of those invited to select and who buy for each BTO exercise, I suggest that the total number of first- and second-time applicants be given over a one-year period.

It may also be good to give a breakdown of second-timers by type, such as those who previously applied with their parents as first-timers, downgraders, those who could not service their mortgages, divorcees, et cetera

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About the Author

Leong
Leong Sze Hian has served as the president of 4 professional bodies, honorary consul of 2 countries, an alumnus of Harvard University, authored 4 books, quoted over 1500 times in the media , has been a radio talkshow host, a newspaper daily columnist, Wharton Fellow, SEACeM Fellow, columnist for theonlinecitizen and Malaysiakini, executive producer of Ilo Ilo (40 international awards), Hotel Mumbai (associate producer), invited to speak more than 200 times in about 40 countries, CIFA advisory board member, founding advisor to the Financial Planning Associations of 2 countries. He has 3 Masters, 2 Bachelors degrees and 13 professional  qualifications.