~by: Leong Sze Hian~
I refer to the report “S’pore sees strong employment growth in Q3″ (Channel NewsAsia).
According to the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM) press release on 15 December, on the Labour Market Q3 2011 (see HERE), “Nominal mean monthly earnings rose over the year by 5.4% in the third quarter of 2011, lower than the 6.0% growth in the preceding quarter. After taking into account headline inflation, real average monthly earnings slipped by 0.2%”.
Since real average monthly earnings fell by 0.2% year-on-year, could real median earnings have fallen by a greater percentage?
31,900 jobs – how many to Singaporeans?
“Total employment grew by 31,900 in the third quarter of 2011, higher than the gains of 24,800 in the preceding quarter”…”the unemployment rate for residents dipped from 3.0% to 2.9% and for Singapore citizens from 3.1% to 3.0% over the same period. An estimated 52,600 residents including 45,700 Singapore citizens were unemployed in September 2011. The seasonally adjusted figures were 61,400 for residents and 53,200 for citizens, slightly lower than 62,600 and 55,000 respectively in June 2011″
So, total employment grew by 31,900 in the third quarter, but the number of unemployed Singaporeans dropped by only 1,800, on a seasonally adjusted basis. I am unable to find the number of unemployed Singaporeans in June, on a non-seasonally adjusted basis. The figure given for September was 45,700.
How many of the total employment growth of 31,900 jobs in the third quarter went to Singaporeans, permanent residents (PRs) and foreigners?
Mature workers largest group of job seekers
“Mature residents aged 40 & over formed the largest group among resident job seekers at 22,900 or 43% in September 2011”
Degree holders largest group of unemployed
The resident unemployment rate of degree holders rose from 2.0% to 2.3%. Notwithstanding the increase, degree holders still had the lowest unemployment rate among the education groups. Reflecting their large composition in the resident labour force, degree holders formed the largest group among the unemployed residents at 13,900 or 26% in September 2011.
Long-term unemployment
The long-term unemployment rate (had been looking for work for at least 25 weeks) increased for degree holders from 0.3 to 0.4%, and for those with secondary education from 0.5 to 0.7%, from 2010 to 2011.
Increase in short work-week/temporary lay-off
“The number of workers on short work-week/temporary lay-off rose substantially from 180 in the second quarter to 660 in the third quarter, the highest since the first quarter of 2010”
Laid-off mostly mature workers
“Close to six in ten (57%) of the residents laid off were aged 40 & over and three in ten (30%) were in their thirties. The remaining 14% were aged below 30, disproportionately lower than their representation in the workforce (19%)”
Redundancy – mostly PMETs
“Nearly six in ten (59%) residents made redundant in the third quarter of 2011 were previously holding PMET jobs”
Re-Entry Into Employment dropped for mature workers
The Rate Of Re-Entry Into Employment Of Residents Made Redundant (Within 6 Months Of Redundancy) decreased for those age 40 and over from 56.3 in June to 51.9 in September.
Job vacancies decline
“Job vacancies dropped by 3.4% over the quarter to 54,000 in September 2011, but remained 7.6% higher than a year ago. After adjusting for seasonality, job vacancies registered its first quarterly decline (-13%) since March 2009, departing from the rising trend following the recovery from the last recession. Along with the decline in unemployment, the seasonally adjusted ratio of job vacancies to unemployed persons at 1.15 in September 2011 was largely unchanged from the 1.16 a quarter ago”
Less hiring expected
“The net weighted balance of services firms expecting to expand headcount moderated to 7% in the fourth quarter of 2011 from 17% in the previous quarter. In manufacturing, a net weighted 2% of firms expect to reduce employment in the fourth quarter of 2011, in contrast to a net weighted 10% that expect to increase employment in the third quarter of 2011”
