How to earn 5% a year, more or less assured?

JUST ASK: How to earn 5% a year, more or less assured?
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In this new, occasional series titled JUST ASK, we invite readers to send in questions on stock investing, and personal finance. We will ask an expert to provide answers. To kick off the series, below is a question from a reader and a response from Leong Sze Hian, the President of the Society of Financial Service Professionals. We had follow up questions for Sze Hian, who has a remarkable string of credentials (please see bottom of the article).


Q I am conservative with my investments. What would you suggest that I park my money in if all I want is 5% return a year, more or less assured?

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Leong Sze Hian, President of the Society of Financial Service Professionals.

Leong Sze Hian: The problem is that sometimes, the greatest risk may be not taking any risk. Just look at what happened with structured products like the Minibonds saga – most perceived them as low risk!

If you “want 5% return a year, more or less assured”, the general consensus is that Government bonds carry the lowest risk – so, if one puts all his or her money in diffierent countries’ Government bonds, the returns over the years will vary depending on interest rate movements and the price of the Government bonds.

Having said that, even Government bonds can and have seen defaults. The yield on the longest tenure Singapore Government bonds is now about 3+% only, with the 10-year Government bond at about 2.5%.
      
Hence, in my view, the only way, to manage risk and have a
 high probability of getting 5%, is to have a globally diversified portfolio comprising approximately 40% equities, 10% commodities (natural resources), 10% real estate and 40% bonds.

NextInsight: How can people go about achieving a globally diversified portfolio comprising approximately 40% equities, 10% commodities (natural resources), 10% real estate and 40% bonds?

Leong Sze Hian: For example, you can structure a portfolio of about 10 investment funds, with as little as $10,000. One may also like to make regular top-ups to the portfolio. 

NextInsight:
What is the longest SG Govt bond that yields 3%? 
 

Leong Sze Hian: 20-year Government bonds.

NextInsight: Typically people view Reits as a source of steady dividend payout of at least 5%. Of course, the last 12 months have been terrible – but under normal circumstances, wld Reits be a good way to try to earn 5% with a high degree of certainty?

Leong Sze Hian: Although REITs are linked to the property sector, being listed on the stock exchange, they have historically been highly correlated with the stock market as well. Over the last 12 months or so, some REITs prices fell by as much as 70 per cent. Also, many REITs had rights issues during the financial crisis, which was a problem for shareholders who may not have funds to take up the rights. As REITs’ prices fell, dividend yields went up to an average of more than 10 per cent.

This led to some investors buying on the basis of focusing on the high yield.  One should not forget that like everything else, there is no such thing as a free lunch in investing – such as high yield and price stability!

   

REIT

Period

DPU (ct)

Recent Price

Yield

NAV

Asset Type

Cambridge

Q3 : Sep-09

1.344

S$0.415

12.848%

S$0.60

Industrial
LMIR

Q3 : Sep-09

1.22

S$0.495

9.859%

S$0.7443

Malls – Indonesia
MI-REIT

1H10 (Proforma – Rights)

1.04

S$0.21

9.905%

S$0.31

Industrial
First REIT

Q3 : Sep-09

1.90

S$0.795

9.585%

S$0.9267

Hospitals + Hotel (Indonesia)
Suntec

Q3 : Sep-09

2.921

S$1.27

9.125%

S$1.946

Malls + Office
Fortune

1H09 (Proforma – Rights)

12.03

HK$2.97

8.101%

HK$4.98

Malls (HK)
MapleTree

Q3 : Sep-09

1.48

S$0.73

8.110%

S$0.86

Industrial
Starhill Gbl

Q3 : Sep-09

0.95

S$0.525

7.181%

S$0.80

Malls + Office
AscottREIT

Q3 : Sep-09

1.92

S$1.17

6.564%

S$1.32

Serviced Apts (Regional)
A-REIT

Q2 : Sep-09

3.48*

S$1.94

7.067%

S$1.58

Industrial
CapitaRChina

Q3 : Sep-09

2.02

S$1.28

6.258%

S$1.10

Malls (China)
FrasersCT

Q4 : Sep-09

2.04

S$1.28

6.375%

S$1.22

Malls
CCT

Q3 : Sep-09

1.85

S$1.16

6.328%

S$1.49

Office
PLife

Q3 : Sep-09

1.91

S$1.21

6.322%

S$1.32

Hospitals
K-REIT

FY08 (Proforma – Rights)

6.08

S$1.04

5.846%

S$1.49

Office
FrasersComm

Q3 : Sep-09

0.2

S$0.14

5.714%

S$0.27

Malls + Office (S’pore + Aust)
CDL HTrust

Q3 : Sep-09

2.04

S$1.70

4.759%

S$1.41

Hotels
CMT

Q3 : Sep-09

2.35

S$1.71

5.450%

S$1.54

Malls + Office
Saizen

Q3 : Sep-09

S$0.15

S$0.41

Residential (Japan)

Source: http://reitdata.blogspot.com/

Email your questions to ct.leong@nextinsight.net

About the Author

Leong
Leong Sze Hian has served as the president of 4 professional bodies, honorary consul of 2 countries, an alumnus of Harvard University, authored 4 books, quoted over 1500 times in the media , has been a radio talkshow host, a newspaper daily columnist, Wharton Fellow, SEACeM Fellow, columnist for theonlinecitizen and Malaysiakini, executive producer of Ilo Ilo (40 international awards), Hotel Mumbai (associate producer), invited to speak more than 200 times in about 40 countries, CIFA advisory board member, founding advisor to the Financial Planning Associations of 2 countries. He has 3 Masters, 2 Bachelors degrees and 13 professional  qualifications.