TR Emeritus

September 19th, 2013

I refer to the Ministry of Manpower’s (MOM) press release “Labour Market, Second Quarter 2013” and Annex.

Alas, local employment change more than foreigners?

It states that “In the first half of 2013, local employment gains exceeded foreign employment gains. Local employment rose by 34,100, up from the gains of 22,800 in the same period last year.

• Foreign employment growth (excluding Foreign Domestic Workers) slowed to 27,000, down from the gains of 34,100 in the same period of 2012. This was the smallest growth since the first half of 2010, reflecting the continued fall in the number of Employment Pass (EP) holders and slower growth in Work Permit (WP) and S Pass holders.
• “

• Foreign employment growth moderated in the first half of 2013. The growth was largely driven by the needs of our construction sector. We will continue to take progressive steps to reduce the inflow of foreign workers, and urge companies to adopt practical productivity improvement strategies, as we move towards a manpower-lean economy. We will continue to press on with restructuring for quality economic growth that will generate good job opportunities for Singaporeans””.

Due to slowdown in economy or policy?

• – A slowdown

in the employment change of foreign workers (excluding Foreign Domestic Workers (FDW) and Construction Workers (CW)) relative to locals (Singaporeans and permanent residents (PRs)) may be due to several factors.

Some of these factors may be a slowdown in the economy, curtailment in the issuance or renewal of new employment passes, S-pass and work permits, etc.

For example, during the last recession in 2009, foreign employment change was minus 19,000 against 41,800 local growth.

So, are the latest statistics showing a slowdown in foreign employment change  relative to local growth due primarily to a policy to curtail the growth of foreign workers, or a slowdown in the economy?

Influx of foreign workers will be curtailed?

Lets look at the history of the statistics from the perspective of the consistent rhetoric which as I understand it started around 2010 (the year prior to the general elections) – that the influx of foreign workers will be curtailed.

In 2010, foreign to local employment change was 95,500 to 56,200. But after the general elections in May 2011. foreign to local change actually ballooned to 107,600 against 37,800.

In other words, does it mean that the rhetoric was not matched by the outcome?

Now that the 2012 and 1H2013 statistics show a slowdown in foreign employment change of 59,100 to 58,800 (2012) and 31,700 to 34,100 (1H2013) respectively, the crucial question may be to what extent was it due to a curtailment policy or a slowdown in the economy?

Breakdown of statistics?

To try to answer this question, perhaps what we need are the statistics for the following:

… breakdown of the locals into Singaporeans and PRs

… an adjustment for new citizens and new PRs (the Population White Paper mentioned 25,000 new citizens and 30,000 new PRs annually)

… breakdown of new employment passess, S-pass and work permits granted against the number of applications

… breakdown of  renewal employment passes, S-pass and work permits that were not successful against the number of renewals applied

… breakdown of the employment passes, S-pass and work permits that employers decided not to renew

Categories that are not counted?

Also, as I undestand that foreign spouses on Long-Term Visit Passess who are able to work with a Letter of Consent from MOM, are not included in the foreign employment change statistics, as well as foreign university interns who may also not be counted  in the foreign worker quota and employment change statistics – what we may also need are the statistics for these categories.

S-pass increase against declining trend?

The S-pass statistics may be rather odd as it went against the overall trend of declining foreign workers. In 2012, S-pass actually grew by 28,500 against just 15,200 in 2011. You can see the huge difference of S-pass against the overall declining trend of total foreign wotkers (excluding FDW and CW), which decreased rom 60,100 to 32,200 from 2011 to 2012.

Arguably, the S-pass may be those jobs that are most wanted by Singaporeans, at the minimum monthly salary of $2,200.

Leong Sze Hian